This image comes from a post on one of my favorite blogs, Climate Progress. It demonstrates the 4 possible scenarios we face with climate change.
Because it seems hard to read, let me summarize the 4 scenarios:
- Early and rapid decline starting in 2010. 47% decreases in current emissions levels. 2.1-2.8C temperature rise by 2100. NOTICE: this still results in a global rise in temperature
- Early but slow decline starting in 2010. Emissions to 1990 levels by 2050. 2.9-3.8C temperature rise by 2100.
- Late and slow decline starting in 2030. 76% increase in emissions by 2050. 4-5.2C temperature rise by 2100.
- Business as usual. 137% increase in emissions by 2050. 5.5-7.1C temperature rise by 2100.
The consequences of 5.5°C warming by 2100, which Hadley says is "likely" on our current emissions path are all but unimaginable — mass extinction, devastating ocean acidification, brutal summer-long heat waves, rapidly rising sea levels, widespread desertification. But they are rarely studied or articulated by scientists who can’t imagine humanity would be so stupid as to let this happen. I have tried to piece them together from the scientific literature.More to come!
[Climate Progress]
No comments:
Post a Comment